Perth Mint Gold and Silver Bullion Sales Jump in June

Demand for Australian bullion coins surged in June, the latest Perth Mint figures show. Gold sales scored their highest level since March and silver sales moved the quickest since April. Bullion sales did retreat from a year earlier, however.

Perth Mint sales of gold coins and gold bars advanced 31,019 ounces last month, rallying 43.1% from the 21,671 ounces sold in May but down 21.3% from the 39,405 ounces delivered in June 2014. Gold sales through the first half of the year tally to 168,650 ounces, off 30% from last year’s starting six-month total of 240,991 ounces.

Perth Mint silver coins at 384,586 ounces in June jumped 13.9% from the prior month’s 337,511 ounces yet slipped 34.4% from sales of 586,358 ounces in June of last year. For the first half of 2015, silver sales combine to 2,810,994 ounces for a drop of 18% from the same six-month start in 2014 when sales reached 3,428,336 ounces.

Perth Mint Gold and Silver Sales by Month

Below is a monthly breakdown of Perth Mint bullion sales from June 2014 to June 2015.

Perth Mint Bullion Sales (in troy ounces)
	Silver	Gold
June 2015	384,586	31,019
May 2015	337,511	21,671
April 2015	472,273	26,545
March 2015	638,557	34,260
February 2015	392,114	31,981
January 2015	585,953	23,174
December 2014	477,731	40,211
November 2014	851,836	49,904
October 2014	655,881	55,350
September 2014	756,839	68,781
August 2014	818,856	36,369
July 2014	577,988	25,103
June 2014	586,358	39,405

United States Mint Bullion Sales in June

U.S. Mint bullion sales in June soared over the prior month and the year ago levels. The agency’s core American Gold Eagles at 76,000 ounces leapt 253.5% higher than May sales and jumped 56.7% higher than sales in June 2014. Its flagship American Silver Eagles at 4,840,000 ounces in June surged 139.2% from the prior month and rallied 79.8% from a year ago.

The Shanghai Stock Market Crash and China Gold Demand

What Does it mean for the future of the gold market?

At present, up to 12 trillion yuan stays in domestic residents' saving accounts. The launch of individual gold investment, therefore, will allow residents to change currency assets into gold assets. At the macro level, it will expand channels for changing savings into investment, thus adjusting the money supply; in the micro aspect, allowing citizens to trade and keep gold can improve social welfare, benefiting both the country and the population.

Moreover, with the dual attributes of common commodity and currency commodity, gold is a desirable instrument for hedging. Therefore, developing gold trade for individuals is practical." – Zhou Xiaochuan, Governor, the People's Bank of China.

Shanghai stocks have fallen over 30% since mid-June. The equivalent in U.S. terms would be for the DJIA to fall 6000 points to the 11,000 level – a crash by any definition. Most of the commentary on this important subject has centered around the potential contagion effect for stock markets in the rest of Asia and beyond. There is another aspect to the crash worth considering though, and that has to do with the effect it will have on Chinese gold demand.

The Chinese people, it is well known, already have a cultural affinity to gold. That attachment just received a shot of adrenaline. Prior to June, trading volumes on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) were already running 20% higher than the previous year. Now, with crash psychology affecting thinking up and down the spectrum of investors, SGE is reporting volumes off the charts. In early July, Want China Times reported that "SGE posted a record trading volume of 48.33 million grams in a single day in late June." (48.3 metric tonnes, a big number.)



Typically stock market crashes inspire gold demand. In the case of China, where the government and central bank encourage citizen gold ownership as a matter of public policy, that lesson could become enshrined in the national psyche. The important consideration for investors elsewhere around the globe is what effect even stronger gold demand from China will have on the gold price both now and in the future.

Flow of physical metal between buyers and sellers will govern prices in China not paper trades

Ever since 2011 when China's demand began to ratchet up, clients have asked how the price of gold could be stagnant to down under the circumstances. The short answer to that question is that price discovery for gold does not occur in the physical market, but in the multi-trillion dollar leveraged paper trade in London and New York – a volume that dwarfs the physical delivery market. Now China is about to challenge that price discovery mechanism through significant infrastructure changes slated to take effect by the end of the year.

This new construct has as its base China's fundamental understanding and goals with respect to gold as summarized by Peoples Bank of China governor Zhou Xiaochuan in our masthead quote above; its affinity for delivered physical ownership, as opposed to paper-based metal; and, the official measures it has undertaken to make inroads into the international gold market's price discovery mechanism.

To gain a better understanding of how China is likely to affect price discovery in the gold market, let's start with something of interest that surfaced as a result of the recent Shanghai crash. Financial Times reported rumors floating the markets that Goldman Sachs was responsible for manipulating stocks downward. Officials denied those rumors and a spokesman for the exchange stated that "foreign investors with access to the futures market via theQualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) program were only permitted to use futures for hedging operations and are not allowed to make directional bets. 

All recent trades by QFIIs complied with regulations." Of course if any manipulation of stocks were to occur, it would be executed in the leveraged futures market where bets can be placed at pennies on the dollar.

Up until I read that quote I was unaware of the strict procedures governing foreign trading on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), China's only futures trading venue. A further investigation, helped along with some links from Koos Jansen, the Netherlands based expert on China's burgeoning gold market, revealed stringent rules governing trade on the SHFE for domestic participants as well, though not quite as stringent as the rules for foreigners. 

At the heart of those rules, SHFE imposes strict position limitations and margin requirements on traders in order to keep price speculation (or directional bets to use its term) to a minimum. Futures trading in China, clearly is meant to serve as an adjunct to the physical market instead of the other way around as it is in western gold trading centers. 

Hedging is maximized. Speculation is minimized. Leverage is controlled within reasonable parameters.

Link SHFE "Operational Manual for Gold Futures Contract Trading"

Metals Watch: Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium and Copper Gain

Metals Watch: Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium and Copper Gain

Gold and other metals prices settled higher overnight, getting a boost from the Chinese central bank’s decision to cut the reserve-requirement ratio for banks in an aim to boost growth.

Gold for April delivery added 0.3% to settle at US$1,264.50 an ounce.

March silver rose more than 0.4% to end at US$17.395 an ounce.

Elsewhere in metals trading, platinum for April delivery climbed 0.3% to settle at US$1,238.90 an ounce, while March palladium firmed 0.5% to end at US$790.20 an ounce.

High-grade copper for March delivery added a penny to US$2.59 a pound.

- See more at: http://investmentaustralia.blogspot.com.au/2015/02/metals-watch-gold-silver-platinum.html#sthash.JFSXgezy.dpuf

Australian Dollar Tumbles on RBA Cash Rate Cut

The Australian dollar tumbled by more than one and a half cents on the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to cut the cash rate to a historic new low.

The local currency hit a fresh five-and-a-half year low to US76.57¢ on Tuesday afternoon, down from US78.16¢ just before the release. The reaction followed the central bank's decision to cut the cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.25 per cent after 18 months of holding the rate steady.

Despite the sharp fall in the Aussie dollar – nearly 20 per cent in the past six months – the Reserve Bank said the exchange rate remained high. 

"The Australian dollar has declined noticeably against a rising US dollar over recent months, though less so against a basket of currencies," the Reserve Bank said in its statement on monetary policy.

"It remains above most estimates of its fundamental value, particularly given the significant declines in key commodity prices. A lower exchange rate is likely to be needed to achieve balanced growth in the economy."

Market forecasts the exchange rate to continue to fall. On Commonwealth Bank of Australia figures, the local currency is expected to fall towards 73¢ by June this year, but the bank's senior currency strategist Elias Haddad said there was a risk the Australian dollar will fall even further and the bank will be revising its forecast.

"We expect a further downside movement here, not just against the US dollar but also on the crosses, due to narrowing interest rate, falling commodity prices and still unimpressive Chinese economic data," Mr Haddad said.

National Australia Bank will also be revising its forecast in light of Tuesday's tumble. Back in November last year the bank forecast the Australian dollar to hit US78¢ by the end of 2015. NAB global co-head of FX strategy Ray Attrill said the bank will be reviewing its forecast after the central bank releases its statement on monetary policy on Friday.

"The market already priced in the expectations of a rate cut, but the currency still lost. It shows the market is still prepared to sell," Mr Attrill said.

In an exclusive interview with The Australian Financial Review in December last year, Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens said an appropriate level for the Australian dollar would be US75¢.

Mr Attrill said the currency could be heading towards the US70¢ mark, given the fall in the commodity prices since December.

"You can argue, if US75¢ was about the right level in mid-December, and taking into account what's happened with commodity prices generally, maybe US70¢ is more appropriate," he said.

A batch of data fuelled RBA jitters earlier on Tuesday. The Australian dollar jumped by more than third of a cent to US78.30¢ after slightly better-than-expected economic data was released: building approvals slipped 3.3 per cent in December (better than the predictions of a 5 per cent slide) and trade deficit narrowed to $436 million in December, beating expectation of more than $850 million.

#AustralianDollar #RBA #interestrates

Iron Ore Won't Rebound Any Time Soon

Why Iron Ore Won't Rebound Any Time Soon

Economists may teach that low prices and declining demand encourage producers to decrease supply, but the iron ore industry appears to have skipped class that day.

"The combination of a further increase in global iron ore supply this year and only subdued demand growth suggests iron ore prices will continue to drift lower," said Caroline Bain, an analyst at Capital Economics, in a note Monday. She forecasts iron ore prices at $60 a tonne by year-end, with risks to the downside. Iron ore touched a more than five-year low Monday of around $63.30 a tonne, although some forward contracts are already pricing it under $60.

Output has picked up over the past few years, encouraged by expectations China demand would continue to post strong growth and by low production costs in Australia and Brazil, she said. She noted Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton put their average production cost in Pilbara, where most of Australia's iron-ore production is located, at around $25 a tonne, compared with 2010-13 average market prices at $145 a tonne. Even at current prices, these producers are still profitable, Bain noted. Australia is the world's second-largest iron-ore producer after China.

Despite 2014's around 50 percent decline in iron ore prices, the big four producers -- Vale (Sao Paulo Stock Exchange: VALE'A-BR), Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and Fortescue (ASX:FMG-AU) - continue to expand production and other companies are also bringing projects on line this year, she said, forecasting Australian production will rise 6 percent this year, although that's down from 2014's 20 percent rise.

Don't count on China

At the same time, despite China producers' higher costs and lower ore grades, production there isn't likely to see much slowdown, especially as many steel plants have "vertically integrated" operations, owning mines nearby, Bain said. Closures on the mainland are likely to focus on less efficient operations, leading to a leaner and meaner industry there, she said.

"The multinational producers will be only partially successful in their bid to oust higher-cost producers globally and oversupply will continue to weigh on prices," she said. At the same time, China's iron ore usage will stagnate at best, hit by a combination of high inventories and lower demand to use the metal as part of financing deals, she said.

Goldman Sachs also expects iron ore producers won't be able to count on China for growth, noting it's become a mature market.

"The decade-long love affair between China and iron ore is cooling. Chinese steel consumption has increased to unsustainable levels and is bound to decline," it said in a note Friday. "Significant overinvestment to date will ensure that the market is well supplied."

It expects a "long war of attrition" will be needed to balance the market, cutting its long-term price forecast by 25 percent to $60 a tonne.

The Oil Effect

Falling oil prices are also set to weigh on iron ore prices, as they result in "substantial cost reductions", and commodity prices are likely to fall to meet these new lower levels, Citigroup said in a note Monday.

It's also concerned about oil-fueled deflationary pressures affecting commodity demand. 

"Falling prices increase the real cost of debt repayments and could see increased defaults. This not only affects direct commodity demand, but also drives lower inventories and threatens commodity financing trade," it said, noting that falling commodity prices also leave companies with little incentive to build up inventories.

In a note earlier this month, the bank cut its 2015 iron ore price forecast to $58 a tonne from $65

Interest in Oil (as indicated through search volume) is Abnormally High at the Moment Due to Recent Price Decline

Interest in Oil (as indicated through search volume) is Abnormally High at the Moment Due to Recent Price Decline.

Looking at the google trends chart above, we can see Interest in Oil (as indicated through search volume) is abnormally high at the moment.



 This data tells us more people are searching for oil using google, likely correlation to investment therefore we can assume that people are looking to invest in oil and are researching or looking to purchase shares and futures commodities contracts online.



 Last time oil price was this low four years ago, price quickly rebounded and went in access of $150 US per barrel.

Gold looks to feature more prominently also the last few months, the Swiss Gold Referendum, Swiss Depeg (de-ceiling) and repatriation of gold by European central banks lately have all been popular news story's on-line.



By Joseph Gale